Democrats entered this year's midterms aiming to flip Senate seats in Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, and Ohio, and hold Georgia and Michigan.
With the national mood really riding against the GOP, they see opportunities in Texas and Iowa as well. But things appear to be changing. That Democrats plan to flip the Senate assumed they wouldn't lose any seats they currently hold. Michigan is potentially winnable for the GOP after Democrats in the state nominated Abdul El-Sayed, but now another reliably blue state has landed on the defensive side of the ledger, forcing Democrats to defend a seat in a blue state they have held for nearly two decades.
Republican Michele Tafoya trails Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan by less than 2 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average of Minnesota's U.S. Senate race, a gap that sits inside the margin of error. If the environment were as poisonous for Republicans as it is believed to be, this election wouldn't be on anyone's radar. Instead, it has become a true contest, and that raises a question the party would rather avoid: how many of its offensive gains survive if one of its safest seats slips away in November?
The competitive nature of this election is most certainly due in part to unique circumstances in the state. A KSTP poll taken last month found that 14% of Minnesota voters named fraud as their most important issue, behind inflation and cost of living at 37% a
