The answer used to be simple. Bad jobs data meant rate cuts were coming. Not anymore.

As of 8 March, the 30-year fixedmortgagerate stands at 5.98%, with the 15-year fixed at 5.50%, according to Zillow data reported by Yahoo Finance. That's a 17 basis point jump from the 5.75%–5.87% range just one week ago. And the reason has nothing to do with the US economy.

US oil futures shot past $100 (£75.17) a barrel on Sunday — the first time crude hit triple digits since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. By Sunday evening, prices briefly touched $110 (£82.69) a barrel, according to reports. The cause: the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that carries 20% of the world's oil supply.

Iran has threatened to target any tanker passing through. Traffic has stopped. And prices are reacting.

Petrol in the US hasalready jumpedto a national average of $3.45 (£2.59) a gallon, up 47 cents from a week ago, AAA data shows. President Donald Trumpdismissed concernson Truth Social, calling the spike 'a very small price to pay' for 'the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat.'

Markets disagree. Dow futures crashed around 900 points, or 1.9%. S&P 500 futures fell 1.9%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped roughly 2.3%.

Three days before oil crossed $100 (£75.17), theBureau of Labor Statisticsreported something that would normally dominate headlines: the US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February.

Economists had expected a gain of 59,000. Instead, payrolls shrank. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. And revisions told an even grimmer story: December's initial report of 48,000 jobs added was revised to a loss of 17,000.

'Today's data show that the labour market has averaged essentially zero net job creation over the past six months,' said Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab.

Healthcare lost 28,000 jobs, partly due to a Kaiser Permanente nurses' strike. Manufacturing shed 12,000. Federal government payrolls dropped by 10,000, extending a decline of 330,000 jobs — 11% of the federal workforce — since October 2024.

Source: International Business Times UK