London copper prices are near record highs at the start of the week, reinforcing the supercycle commodity bull-cycle thesis former Goldman Sachs commodities chief Jeff Currie outlined in August: "get long and buckle up." The convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement and policy intervention is creating conditions for a sustained repricing of scarce resources.
From refined petroleum products and rare earths to industrial metals and certain agricultural commodities, tightening physical markets underpin our "own the bottlenecks" theme.
Deutsche Bank's head of metals research, Daniel Ghali, added urgency to that theme on Monday morning, warning that available copper inventories globally have fallen to "unprecedented lows." As US and Chinese stockpiling squeezes supplies available elsewhere, Ghali sees copper rallying roughly 50% to $22,050 a ton by the second quarter of 2027.
Ghali estimates China's strategic reserves hold about 2.05 million tons, equivalent to 43% of global above-ground inventories. Meanwhile, US tariff-driven stockpiling demand could leave 1.3 million tons tied up at warehouses by year-end. Together, the bank estimates US and Chinese stockpiling will encumber 71% of global inventories.
« Back to The Culture War
