Authored by Larry Johnson via Sonar21.com
This article is the result of my conversation earlier today during my flight from Istanbul to London. I was sitting next to a FEDEX pilot who was on his way to Paris via London. I asked him about aviation fuel prices and the effect on FEDEX and I got more than I bargained for. The world’s express carriers like to present themselves as barometers of the global economy. In 2026 they are also measuring something else: what it costs to run a global air network when two of the three main east-west air corridors are effectively closed. The answer so far is that FedEx and UPS are surviving the shock largely by passing it on to their customers. That cost doesn’t disappear. It moves down the supply chain and into the inflation numbers central banks are now fighting.
The fuel shock
The trigger was the Iran war. The International Energy Agency has described the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Brent peaked near $118 in late March, fell to about $70 by July 1, rebounded above $100 in late July, and climbed back to $109 in early September after renewed attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure. It has since eased to around $99 on hopes from US-Iran talks, but it is still up roughly 60% for the year.
Jet fuel has moved further than crude because refining margins widened. IATA’s latest weekly reading put the global average at $194.90 a barrel, up 7.4% in a single week. U.S. Gulf Coast kerosene-type jet fuel averaged $4.341 a gallon in September. The ground networks are exposed too: the national diesel average has hit a recor
