The Home Team looks at live prediction-market trading around control of Congress. The percentages shown represent market-implied probabilities at that moment, not polling results, official forecasts or guaranteed outcomes, and those prices can change rapidly as traders react to new information. Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts tied to future outcomes. A contract's price can be interpreted as a market-implied probability, but it reflects trading activity and market structure rather than a scientifically sampled measurement of American voters. Control of the House and Senate has different institutional consequences. Both chambers participate in federal lawmaking, while the Senate separately considers presidential nominations and treaties and the House has distinct constitutional responsibilities.
