The US and Israel are at war with Iran. All the threats, warnings by Donald Trump that Tehran was staring at a massive attack if it didn’t give into dismantle its nuclear program, have been proved right. The US and Israel have been warning for a long time that a country like Iran — that according to them — is a ‘terrorist regime’ cannot be allowedto build a nuclear weapon. With this joint attack, they have made sure that Iran right now is in no case will be able to build a nuclear weapon, although it has over 440 kgs of uranium enriched to over 60 per cent, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Out of these objectives, while the first two may have been achieved, the third one — which is of regime change — is going to be an uphill task for both the US and Israel.
Many geopolitical experts are of the view that they (US and Israel) can cause co-lateral damages to a regime with air strikes, eliminate individual targets like Khamenei, but cannot change a regime using just air or sea power.
For that, they need ‘Boots on the Ground’ -- which means Israel and US soldiers there inside the Iranian territory, fighting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), but that ain’t going to be easy task because it’s a massive force.
The IRGC is an elite military branch in Iran with an estimated 150,000 to 190,000 active-duty personnel, supported by a 600,000-strong Basij paramilitary volunteer force. These security guards operate parallel to the regular army with its own air, naval, and ground forces, heavily influencing Iran's economy and politics.
Until there is a direct offensive and dominance of the US and Israel over the IRGC, regime change is a very distant objective, suggest experts.
Since day one in this war, Israel and the US have been calling out Iranians that they have launched the offensive and now it was time for them to seize control, uproot the government, but how?
Geopolitics analysts say that the civilians can protest, support the action against the ‘terrorist’ and ‘Islamist regime’, but how can they fight the IRGC or Iranian forces, who are still indoctrinated and want an oppressive regime?
They (IRGC) have all the weapons, logistics, and money, but what do civilian Iranians have besides a resolve to uproot the government? The reality is that for a total regime change operation, you need to send soldiers and fight it out on the battlefield -- a strategy believed by almost every geopolitical expert out there, but so far there is no sign that the US and Israel would go for it.
When asked earlier this week,US President Donald Trump said he would not rule out sending ground troopsinto Iran if necessary. In a statement, he said, "Like every President says, 'There will be no boots on the ground.' I don't say it.”
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