Even amassive military assault on Iran is unlikely to topple the Islamic Republic of Iran and its state system, according to a classified assessment produced by the US intelligence community shortly before the US and Israel launched their current 'shock and awe-style' military campaign on Tehran.The Washington Postfirst reported it, perhaps based on some kind of leak or briefing by an anonymous intelligence official, andcalls it—
a sobering assessmentas the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials sayhas"only just begun."
The report, compiled by the National Intelligence Council (NIC)roughly a week before the war began, concluded thatIran's political system is structured to survive even major leadership losses,The Washington Postreports. However, this shouldreally come as no surprise to anyone awake and observant throughout the past two plus decades of America's 'nation building' effortsin the Middle East, from Afghanistan to Iraq to Libya.
Already, Israel and the US have touted that 'all' of Iran's top leadership has been decimated, and yet clearly the governing system and its military - led specially by the elite IRGC - is not only in control but is still fighting back.
According to the assessment, Tehran has long prepared for such contingencies - and likely there's anemergency plan now in place in the wake of Ayatollah's Khamenei's death.
Intelligence officials say Iran long ago established clear succession protocols designed tomaintain continuity of power even if senior leaders are killed. In other words, the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would likely trigger an internal transition process rather than cause the system to collapse - again, something which should be the obvious scenario.
The intelligence report alsopoured cold water on the idea that Iran's opposition could quickly fill any power vacuum. US intelligence analysts assessed that the country's fragmented opposition movementsremain too divided to seize control, regardless of whether Washington pursued limited strikes against leadership targets or a broader assault on state institutions.
Equally unlikely, according to current and former US officials familiar with the analysis, is the prospect of a spontaneous nationwide uprising. We could speculate that this possibilitymay havehad a chance of some degree of successwithin the opening one or two days of the mass US-Israel bombing campaign, but it clearly didn't materialize.
Welcome to U.S. elite foreign policy discourse, where you have to stroke your chin and muse thoughtfully about whether it's a good thing to trigger state collapse and civil war in a nation of 90 million that didn't pose an imminent threat.https://t.co/EWCLpZrIwF
On this prospect WaPo quotesBrookings:
Source: ZeroHedge News
