Unlike some recent extremely volatile months, especially in the first half of 2026, consumers expectations for inflation in August barely budged from July, as disclosed today by the latest NY Fed Survey, which showed that inflation expectations in one year were unchanged at 3.6%, estimates for inflation in five years were also flat at 3.0% for the 12th month in a row, while estimates for inflation in three years dipped to 3.2%, from 3.3%.
According to the report, median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at the one- and five-year horizons and decreased at three-year horizon.
Taking a closer look at the component, median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.2% point to 3.0%, just below its 12-month trailing average of 3.1%. The decrease was driven by those living in the Northeast.
Among commodities, median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 1.7% points to 4.6% for gas, by 0.3% to 5.3% for food, and by 0.2% point to 9.1% for medical care. Median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.3% to 6.1% for the cost of college education and by 0.7 % point to 6.6% for rent.
While inflation expectations
