One of the reasons why the price of oil failed to soar during the "actively kinetic" phase of the Iran war, when shipments through Hormuz were effectively halted and the world faced a shortage of about 10-15mmb/d, is that Chinese oil demand plunged. Whether due to a sharp slowdown in the economy (which after the sudden "recap" of China's banks appears very likely) or due to an aggressive drain of China's strategic reserve, the reality is that, as discussed here extensively, both Chinese oil imports...
... and local product refining...
... cratered for much of 2026, signaling that Chinese oil demand has indeed plunged.
But no more: one of the telltale signs of the period of weak Chinese demand was the collapse in the Brent-Shanghai crude spread, which traded as negative as -$20 in late April. However, in the past few weeks, we have seen a dramatic jump in Shanghai crude, which is trading just shy of the highest level hit since the Iran war, well above $100. More importantly, it now trading a sizable premium to Brent, indicating that the period of weak Chinese demand is finally over.
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