Voters in Saxony-Anhalt head to the polls on Sunday, followed two weeks later by elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. With the right-wing Alternative for Germany leading the national polls, the elections could be the opening act of an 18-month period in which Europe "lurches to the right," as Nomura analysts explained last month.
UniCredit's chief German economist, Dr. Andreas Rees, told clients on Friday: "Three state elections in just 14 days will test Germany's government coalition and its reform plans. While political noise is likely to increase, we expect the push for structural reform to remain on track."
The polling chart compiled by Rees' team shows the rising popularity of the AfD and the pressure facing Germany's establishment parties. The AfD leads nationally at roughly 28%, compared with 21% for the CDU/CSU and 12% for the SPD. In Saxony-Anhalt, the gap is far wider, with the AfD polling near 41%, versus 23% for the CDU and just 8% for the SPD. However, CDU/CSU leads over AfD in Berlin.
Rees touched on this Sunday's big election in Saxony-Anhalt, which could quite possibly usher in AfD leadership:
On Sunday, voters in Saxony-Anhalt will head to the polls; two weeks later, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the city-state of Berlin will follow. Formally, these are state elections with regional specifics and differences. Politically, however, three elections within 14 days will probably be viewed as a report card for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU-SPD coalition, at a time when the government is trying to move from
