Rivalry Saturday has arrived, and the college basketball landscape is bracing for a massive slate featuring 15 games involving Top 25 schools. With March Madness looming, these high-stakes matchups offer more than just bragging rights. They provide a crucial look at which teams are peaking and which are stumbling.
For this week'sThree Best Bet Weave, I’m leaning on form, shot profiles, and the all-important "battle for possessions". If I could just stop betting my team, St. John's, I'd be crushing it this season. My college basketball betting record is20-18(0-5 in St. John's games) and+0.7 units (u). Let’s get to the card.
These bets were available at the time of writing and are subject to change.
For what it's worth, Kentucky is takingsharp actionand has gone from a +7.5 underdog on DraftKings' opener, down to +5.5. Obviously, the sportsbooks will be reporting most of the money and bets are on Florida, so maybe my bet issquare. However, this Gators team has a better net rating at this point in the season than last year's title-winning team.
Florida Gators big Alex Condon posts up Kentucky Wildcats forward Andrija Jelavic at Exactech Arena in Gainesville. (Photo Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)
Hey, this Todd Golden guy might be good. Golden has Florida playing its best ball entering March Madness, again. The Gators have a championship defense, probably the best frontcourt in the country and the nation's fourth-longest winning streak at 10 games. The Wildcats covered as +12.5 ‘dogs on the road on Valentine’s Day, but Florida is peaking since and UK is regressing.
Purdue is overrated and I'm fading the market, which has bet the Boilermakers up from a -7.5 opener. I know they waxed Wisconsin 89-73 on the road in their first meeting this season. But that's part of the market's overreaction and I prefer the Badgers' shot profile. They get more layups, shoot more 3s and take roughly half as many long-mid-range jumpers, the most inefficient shot in basketball.
Purdue PG Braden Smith drives past Wisconsin guard Nick Boyd at the Kohl Center in Madison. (Photo credit: © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Plus, Wisconsin has more size, just as much experience, and beat Purdue twice on the road last season. Finally, the Badgers rank 36th in "Momentum" and the Boilermakers are 271st, according to HaslamMetrics.com. Wisconsin is 6-2 against the spread (ATS) this month, while Purdue is 4-5 ATS, with a three-game non-cover streak.
Texas Tech has ripped off a few wins since losing its leading scorer and rebounder,J.T. Toppin, to a season-ending injury. This includes upsetting #6 Iowa State on the road Feb. 28. But, eventually, Toppin's absence has to catch up to the Red Raiders, and the CougarsNEEDto get right in their final home game of the season and snap this three-game losing skid.
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