The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives next Thursday, yet by this point the basin would normally have produced multiple systems tracking through the Caribbean, the Gulf of America, and the open Atlantic. This year, however, a strengthening El Niño and record vertical wind shear are tearing apart disturbances before they can rapidly intensify.
Bloomberg reports that only five short-lived tropical storms have formed this season, and none has intensified into a hurricane. The Atlantic has not recorded so little activity at this point in the season since 1941.
"We're crushing all sorts of shear records this year," said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University's annual seasonal forecast. "The models are so anemic on storm development coming up in the next 10 days too."
Forecasters and researchers are tracking accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes during a season.
"We currently have an ACE of 4.4," Klotzbach said. That is the lowest since 1941. A low ACE indicates that storms have generally been weak or short-lived, reflecting the fact that no tropical disturbance has intensified into a hurricane.
For the US energy complex, the absence of hurricane activity is great news. Gulf Coast refineries, offshore platforms, pipelines, and LNG export terminals have avoided precautionary shutdowns, allowing facilities to operate near full capacity as the global READ MORE AT SOURCE »
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