A four standard deviation beat for non-farm payrolls this morning (good news) is triggering ugly reactions (bad news) across markets with rate-hike odds for September ripping back up near recent highs (despite no signs of inflationary wage growth - in fact it is slowing)...
Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief FX strategist:
“The strength in the latest NFP report will validate Sept. Fed rate-rise talks and most likely give the dollar a short-term-yield-driven lift.”
“But that’s priced, and unless the Fed signals the beginning of an aggressive tightening cycle, the Fed-driven dollar upside may be contained into 4Q.”
That in turn is hammering the short-end of the yield curve...
And weighing on stocks...
Based on JPMorgan's matrix, we should see a drop in the S&P of between 0.5% and 1.25%...
Significantly more than the options market implied (+/-0.52%)...
The dollar jumped...
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