A classified US intelligence assessment has concluded that even a large-scale military assault on Iran would be unlikely to topple the country’s entrenched clerical and military establishment. The report, prepared by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), casts doubt on the prospect that Iran’s fragmented opposition could take power following either a limited or prolonged U.S. military campaign.
Citing three people familiar with the report,the Washington Postsaid the assessment was completed about a week before the United States and Israel launched their military campaign against Iran on Feb. 28.
The report examined potential succession scenarios following either targeted strikes on Iran’s leadership or a broader assault on the country’s governing institutions. In both cases, intelligence analysts concluded that the Islamic republic’s clerical and military leadership would likely maintain control even if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed.
The report found that Iran’s political and security structures are designed to ensure continuity of power and that the possibility of the country’s fragmented opposition taking control was considered “unlikely,” according to the people cited by the Washington Post.
The National Intelligence Council comprises senior analysts who produce classified assessments representing the combined views of the United States’ 18 intelligence agencies.
The conflict, which began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes, has expanded in recent days to include submarine warfare in the Indian Ocean and missile interceptions near NATO member Turkey.
“President Trump and the administration have clearly outlined their goals with regard to Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement. “The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed.”
Experts say the assessment reflects longstanding views about the resilience of Iran’s political institutions.
“It sounds like a deeply informed assessment of the Iranian system and the institutions and processes that have been established for many years,” Suzanne Maloney, an Iran scholar and vice president at the Brookings Institution, was quoted as saying by the Washington Post.
The report reportedly did not examine other scenarios such as deploying U.S. ground troops or supporting ethnic Kurdish insurgencies within Iran.
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