Iran has spent decades and billions of dollars building a network of proxy militias in Iraq. But as Tehran now faces what many see as an existential threat amid its warwith the United States and Israel, many of those fighters have yet to join the conflict. A commander in a pro-Iranian paramilitary group in Iraq, identified only as A.J., said he has been waiting for instructions from Tehran since the war began a week ago, according to a report by Reuters. While some pro-Iranian groups in Iraq have claimed attacks in recent days, their role in the conflict has so far remained limited.
One group said it had launched drones at what it described as “enemy bases in Iraq and the region,” and several explosions were reported in the northern city of Erbil, a Kurdish stronghold that hosts a US military base. However, Kurdish officials say most of the missile and drone strikes targeting the region have been launched directly from Iran.
More than two dozen attacks have been claimed online under the banner of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a label used by several militant factions, but many appear to have caused little or no damage, and in some cases there is no evidence the attacks occurred, the Reuters report said.
A.J. believes that even if direct orders are eventually issued from Tehran, they will likely involve only two or three of the dozens of Iraqi Shi’ite paramilitary groups that Iran has cultivated over the years.
"I just don't think most of them are reliable anymore," he told Reuters. "Some will act. Others would have front groups that could launch attacks with deniability. But many are just looking out for their own interests these days."
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According to the commander, there are several factors for the reduced military potency of Iran's Iraqi proxies: Israel and America's war of attrition against other regional allies, the loss of Syria as a supply line, and the transition of key commanders into Iraqi political and economic life.
Iran deployed proxy fighters to Syria from across the region in 2011 to prevent the collapse of Bashar al‑Assad’s government during an uprising that later turned into a civil war largely dominated by Sunni Islamist rebel groups. For the wider Iran-backed alliance in the region, Syria became a crucial land corridor linking Iran to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The route allowed Tehran to move weapons, fighters and supplies across the Middle East. But Assad's ouster in December 2024 was a hammer blow to Tehran and its proxies.
Experts also believe the Iraqi militia leaders don't want sanctions on them as individuals. They want to have access to Western healthcare and to have their children educated abroad.
However, Iraqi security officials and members of paramilitary groups believe Iran's proxies could still enter the conflict in larger numbers if the war escalates. The move could happen if the fighting drags on, if a joint US–Israeli attack is seen as targeting Shi’ites more broadly, or if US-backed Kurdish groups launch attacks against Iran.
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