Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank
Stalemate, not checkmate
CIA Chief Ratcliffe’s 15-minute dialogue in Moscow was reportedly an elevator pitch warning Russia not to support Iran, and not to attack NATO.
Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are at a dead end, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian economic infrastructure – including refineries and large online retailers – are increasingly putting pressure on President Putin. So, Moscow is preparing to escalate its assaults on the country. Russian military presence in Belarus is building up, which could reopen a front towards Kyiv.
Moreover, Putin considers Ukrainian attacks as NATO strikes because the weapons were supplied by the alliance. If Putin were to attack any of the Baltic states, NATO either triggers article 5 and attacks Russia, or it doesn’t. Who knows where either option leads. Escalation would spread the US’ resources thin, after reports that its defence i
