We have warned that Europe is approaching a twin energy crisis, with the Northern Hemisphere winter now just three months away.
Dutch front-month gas futures, Europe's benchmark contract, surged Monday morning to 67 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest level since early 2023.
Goldman Sachs commodities expert Samantha Dart warns that EU NatGas prices may need to more than double from her base-case forecast if LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained.
Dart said reduced Qatari LNG loadings have forced Europe to compete more aggressively with Asia for available cargoes.
"We have argued that, in the absence of an improvement in LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) (Exhibit 1), European gas prices (TTF) would need to rise to discourage Asia LNG demand, thereby freeing incremental cargoes to be sent to Europe to help manage European gas storage levels," she said.
Dart warned that the most alarming scenario would emerge if Persian Gulf energy exports recovered only gradually through 2027. Under that scenario, she estimates December 2026 TTF may need to exceed 100 euros per megawatt-hour, more than double the previous 50-euro base case, while Asian JKM prices could approach $35 per million British thermal units.
She noted, "However, because LNG pr
