NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices touched their highest levels since 2023 after surging again Friday because of the Iran war, while a weak update on the U.S. job market highlighted the economy's precarious position. The two trends raised the risk of a worst-case scenario for financial markets, and stocks fell as they neared the finish of a punishing week.
The S&P 500 dropped 1.1% after a report showed U.S. employers cut more jobs last month than they created and after oil prices spiked above $90 per barrel. It’s a combination that investors hate because no one in the world has a good tool to fix both a weak economy and high inflation at the same time.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 558 points, or 1.2%, as of 1:45 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.9% lower. Wall Street's moves are still erratic, though, given all the uncertainties created by the war. The Dow dropped as many as 945 points in the morning before roughly halving its loss.
“You can’t sugarcoat this report,” according to Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management. “A negative payrolls number combined with a big jump in oil prices will have traders worrying about stagflation risks.”
Stagflation is what economists call a stagnating economy combined with high inflation, and a separate report released Friday added to the sour mix after showing that U.S. retailers made less money in January than economists expected. It raised the disconcerting possibility that spending by U.S. households, the main engine of the economy, may be stretched near its maximum.
Usually when the economy is unsteady and the job market is weakening, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to give things a boost. Lower rates can make it more affordable for households to get mortgages and companies to raise money to expand, while also helping prices for stocks and other investments. The Fed cut its main interest rate several times last year and had indicated more were to come this year.
But lower interest rates can also make inflation worse. And the Fed’s hands may be increasingly tied because spiking oil prices are pushing inflation higher due to disruptions for the energy industry.
The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, shot up another 8.3% to $92.53 and briefly rose above $94 to touch its highest level since September 2023. A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude jumped 12.5% to $91.12 and topped $90 per barrel for the first time since 2023.
Oil prices have surged, with Brent up from near $70 late last week, as the war has expanded and included areas critical to the production and movement of oil and gas in the Middle East. Much will depend on what happens with the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil typically sails through the narrow waterway off Iran’s coast.
If oil prices spike further, like to $100 per barrel, and stay there, some analysts and investors say it could be too much for the global economy to withstand.
Source: WPLG
