The US economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, the government reported Friday. Unemployment climbed to 4.4%. To put that in perspective, economists had been expecting the country to add roughly 50,000 jobs last month. The gap between what was predicted and what actually happened is significant, and it marks the worst month for payrolls since October.
What makes it sting more is the timing. These numbers reflect the state of the job market before theIran warbegan, and before President Trump's tariff plans reintroduced a fresh wave of uncertainty into an already jittery economic outlook. In other words, this is the floor, not the ceiling, of what could be coming.
December, which was originally reported as a gain of 48,000 jobs, has now been flipped to a loss of 17,000. January's numbers were trimmed by 4,000 jobs, leaving that month at 126,000. The job market, in other words, was weaker heading into February than the data had led everyone to believe.
That changed in February. Health care shed 28,000 jobs last month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics attributed the decline to strike activity, which offers some explanation, but it still removes one of the economy's most reliable props at a moment when it can least afford to lose it.
Friday's report flips that logic around. A labour market shedding jobs, with the previous months looking weaker than reported, changes the picture in ways that could give the Fed more room, and more reason, to consider cuts.
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