“We’re seeing a major secular shift, that we’re now moving into a period of capital shortage, as well as we’re witnessing the end of the three-decade period of globalization, which led to significant disinflation.”
That prediction comes from Dr. Lacy Hunt, once one of the bond market’s most prominent bulls and secular disinflationists. Well… no longer. He’s now a seller of U.S. long-dated bonds and suggested during last night’s discussion on ZeroHedge that he’s eyeing gold favorably.
Lacy told Thoughtful Money’s Adam Taggart and Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital that inflation is here to stay so get used to it and plan accordingly:
“There will be intermittent episodes when the secular forces will fade, but the big picture is considerably different. We’re going to have higher inflation. We’re going to have greater volatility in inflation. The trend in interest rate is going to be higher. And we’re going to have generally poor economic performance.”
Here were the highlights of Lacy’s tour de force, but we highly recommend the full 75-minute discussion in its entirety:
Net national savings “very close to zero”
Hunt began his case with two forces: a shortage of capital and the reversal of globalization.
“The Federal Reserve cannot solve the capital shortage situation. They can increase the money supply, but to have physical investment you need saving out of income.”
Money printing and rising rates has an increasingly deleterious effect on private investment, which will be vital
