Upward momentum in agricultural prices, as tracked by the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, should be ringing inflationary alarm bells. The breakout comes just one week after JPMorgan analyst Nora Szentivanyi warned that the next global food crisis could materialize as early as next year.
Multiple shocks are converging all at once across the global food complex, including continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, rising El Niño risks, and adverse weather across the US agricultural belt.
This note focuses on another emerging chokepoint: Europe's breadbasket, where intensifying attacks in the Russia-Ukraine war have shuttered critical Black Sea grain export terminals.
Reuters reports that global wheat importers are preparing for tighter supplies and higher prices as tit-for-tat attacks on Black Sea ports and bulk carriers continue to disrupt shipments during the region's peak export season.
Those attacks have shuttered grain terminals and forced shippers to delay or cancel dozens of cargoes. Ukraine reported 35 attacks on vessels in port, 22 at sea, and 67 against port facilities in July, compared with just 14 such incidents during all of 2025.
Ukraine has damaged Russia’s grain export terminals in an attack on the Novorossiysk port, while Russia has struck grain infrastructure in Ukraine's Odesa region. Tit-for-tat attacks between the world’s major grain exporters threatens food security in import-dependent countries. pic.twitter.com/YxwIQApN
