Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong entered primary day as the prohibitive favorite to become the Democratic Party’s nominee for Wisconsin governor.
Yet, she wound up narrowly losing to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley instead.
Crowley beat Hong by 0.4 percentage points, a margin of about 3,000 votes, in a race that polling had shown Hong leading by about 20 points for weeks.
Despite the slim margin, Hong ultimately conceded the race, and now Crowley will face Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany in November.
The gap between expectation and outcome sent pollsters, analysts, and commentators searching for an explanation, and their answers vary.
Marquette Law School polled the race twice, catching it at two different stages of collapse. The first, taken July 8-16 while Crowley sat out, had Hong at 26%, Barnes at 15%, and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez at 11%. Rodriguez dropped out the next day. Crowley climbed back in July 18, and by the time Marquette polled again July 22-27, Hong had jumped to 38%, Barnes had ticked up to 16%, and Crowley had 7%. Barnes quit three days after that.
Both polls had small samples, margins of error above four points, and undecided voters in the 30s and 40s. Neither one could have caught what came next. Hong's 2021 posts calling for canceling Thanksgiving resurfaced in early August. She defended the posts on CNN, then reversed course on Politico, calling Thanksgiving her favorite holiday. The reversal revived old criticism of her past comment
