For the past 5 years we have often hammered the table on the biggest, most glaring fudge factor in the monthly jobs report, namely the"birth-death adjustment"- which became a statistical fiasco in the aftermath of thecovid PPP-loan scamas thousands of fake "new companies" were created to take advantage of the government's free money handout generosity - and which has since corrupted the underlying statistics in the jobs report beyond recognition again...
Almost half of all "job gains" in the past year are from an excel spreadsheet which assumes 1.84 million new jobs were created from new business creation (i.e. Birth/Death adjustment)https://t.co/C8xQNvZKYFpic.twitter.com/SyJBtBkQBd
Lowering inflation also likely to require softer labor markets.Translation: stop it with the ridiculous seasonal birth-death adjustments.
holy shit: birth/death model added 412K excel spreadsheet "jobs", the second highest on record.US economy sliding into recession and BLS assuming the 2nd fastest pace of new business creation in history!pic.twitter.com/KbTgO0qnqJ
Half of all job growth in the past year is from Birth/Death adjustmentspic.twitter.com/UahfONUYZw
57% of all YTD jobs are statistical fakes, thanks only to the Birth/Death adjustmentpic.twitter.com/utYosI0k7S
After the upcoming fix to the laughable "Birth/Death model", we'll learn that the actual number of jobs is about 10 million lower
We even correctly predicted -one day ahead of time- that massive,818,000 negative jobs revision August 21, 2024which served as the basis for the Fed's jumbo rate cut and start of the easing cycle despite sticky 3% inflation...
Why 1 million jobs will be quietly removed from the payrolls? Because as noted below, 57% of all YTD jobs are statistical fakes from Birth/Death adjustment which assume the same new business vibrancy as just after covid (which was mostly to facilitate PPP fraud)https://t.co/YHvKRyYFds
... which prompted both the former BLS commissioner...
Source: ZeroHedge News
