Unlike recent extremely volatile months, consumers expectations for inflation in July barely budged as disclosed today by the latest NY Fed Survey, which showed that inflation expectations in one year fell slightly to 3.6% from 3.7% prior. Estimates for price increases in three and five years remained at 3.3% and 3%, respectively, although the 3Y inflation forecast did dip notably, if not enough to move it by a significant digit.
Gas price growth expectations rebounded partially after their sharp decline in June, increasing by 1.4% to 2.9%.
Away from inflation, labor market expectations were mixed, with the mean probability of higher US unemployment rate increasing by 1.1 ppt to 42.8%...
... and the mean probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increasing by 0.1 ppt to 14.2 percent; however, this was offset by the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost, which increased by 1.3% to 46.2% the highest this year. That increase was most pronounced among those who have a high school degree or less and those living in a household where income is under $ 50,000 per year.
