North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, front, is seen during an event to celebrate Snipers' Day in this photo released Wednesday. Yonhap
U.S. strikes against Iran and the killing of its supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, along with key military officials, following the Donald Trump administration’s capture of Venezuelan autocratic leader Nicolas Maduro, have sparked a debate in South Korea: Will North Korean leader Kim Jong-un be next?
Skeptics appear to have gained the upper hand. They argue that Iran and North Korea are fundamentally different because, unlike Iran, North Korea possesses nuclear weapons — dozens of them.
Ellen Kim, director of academic affairs at the Washington-based think tank Korea Economic Institute of America, said it would be far riskier for the U.S. to pursue a military option against nuclear-armed North Korea. Kim also noted that North Korea’s two allies, China and Russia, stand behind Pyongyang — another factor that could constrain any potential U.S. military operation against the North.
A similar view has been expressed in South Korea. Rep. Park Jie-won of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) said the conflicts in the Middle East would likely strengthen the North Korean leader’s confidence in nuclear weapons.
“North Korean leader Kim would have felt his heart skip a beat when he heard that Iran’s supreme leader died during the U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran,” Park said during a radio show. “But Kim would also think that North Korea and Iran are different. As long as the North possesses nuclear weapons, no one — not even the U.S. — would dare consider launching a military strike against it. I think he would have that kind of confidence.”
Experts say the U.S. military action in Iran will likely reinforce the North Korean leader’s belief that nuclear weapons serve as the ultimate security guarantee. As a result, Pyongyang may move to further strengthen its nuclear capabilities.
They are partly right — but not entirely.
The fact that North Korea possesses dozens of nuclear weapons would indeed make it far more difficult for the Trump administration to replicate the same type of military operation carried out in “nuclear-free” Iran. But this does not necessarily mean the U.S. would never consider any kind of military action against a nuclear-armed North Korea.
North Korea is increasingly becoming a threat to the United States, not to mention East Asia. Since its first launch of a Hwasong-12 missile in 2017, North Korea has tested its Hwasong-series missiles dozens of times. Pyongyang claims it has successfully developed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of carrying nuclear warheads that can reach the U.S. mainland. However, this claim has yet to be fully verified.
Source: Korea Times News
