SpaceX shares are hovering near record lows after the company's first earnings report as a publicly traded company beat expectations. However, as we noted Tuesday, Thursday's first lockup expiration is likely the more significant near-term catalyst than earnings.
The first insider share lockup expires today and more than doubles the float from about 639 million to 1.55 billion. That means about 911.5 million shares of new supply are inbound for the market.
HSBC analysts Nicolas Cote-Colisson and Charlie Rothbarth recently mapped out the staggered lockup-expiration schedule:
SpaceX's IPO prospectus indicated that 555,555,555 shares would be issued to constitute the free float. We understand that the underwriters have exercised their option to purchase additional shares of Class A common stock in full, so the free float would have extended to 638,888,888 shares.
We identify 4,678m locked up shares and another 8,160m shares subject to an extended lockup. Based on the information provided by the SpaceX prospectus dated 12 June 2026, we calculate that 912m shares could be available for sale in the public market from 6 August 2026, compared with 640m shares constituting the free float at present. The free float would increase from 4.9% at present to 11.8%.
Another release event could occur on the same day depending
