As the midterms draw nearer, every evaluation ofPresident Trumpis viewed as a predictor of how people will vote. Claims that Trump has only a39 percentapproval rating are concerning because they suggest Republicans could lose their congressional majority.
Historically, the 50 percentapproval markhas acted as a break-even point. Presidents below50 percenthave seen their party lose an average of37 House seatsin the midterms, while presidents above that mark still usually lose seats, but by a much smaller margin, roughly 14 seats.
Since World War II, only two presidents saw their party gain House seats during a midterm election, Bill Clinton in 1998 andGeorge W. Bushin 2002, and both had approval ratings above 60 percent.
However, many major polls are conducted by mainstream media outlets and think tanks that are biased against Trump. Just as in his two upset presidential victories, the reality at the ballot box may not match polling results.
A WashingtonPost–ABCNews–Ipsos poll of more than 2,300 Americans asked respondents to name the best and worst things President Trump has done since January 2025.
About 39 percent approved of his job performance and were asked to cite his best actions, while 60 percent who disapproved were asked to name his worst actions.
The results of this poll should be taken with caution and likely do not represent the true percentage of the electorate that approve or disapprove of President Trump. Nor does it predict the outcome of the midterms.
As with any poll, respondents react to questions framed by pollsters and select from limited options.
When it comes to voting in the midterms, however, they will choose between specific candidates, neither of whom will be Trump.
Asking whether people are satisfied with Trump’s performance is not the same as asking whether they would choose Kamala over Trump for president or a Democrat over a Republican in a congressional race.
Source: The Gateway Pundit
