For yet another quarter, the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding offered no surprises, which considering the state of the US bond market is probably not a bad thing.
In its 8:30am ET report, the US Treasury retained its previous guidance for future debt issuance, signaling no change in note and bond auction sizes well into 2027 even as federal borrowing needs balloon to stratospheric levels (and will explode once the AI bubble bursts leading to catastrophic consequences for corporate bonds).
As for next week, the Treasury will hold $125 billion of refunding auctions, in line with estimates, which will be made up of:
- $58 billion of 3-year notes on Aug. 11
- $42 billion of 10-year notes on Aug. 12
- $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Aug. 13
The refunding will raise new cash of approximately $28.7 billion, the Treasury said.
Based on current projections, officials expect to maintain current sales amounts for nominal coupon securities and floating rate notes "for at least the next several quarters" - the same market-soothing language which the department has used in its quarterly debt-issuance strategy statement ever since the Janet Yellen "Activist Treasury Issuance" days of early 2024.
On bills, “based on current forecasts, Treasury expects to
