Having rebounded from record (46 year) lows in June, University of Michigan's final July Sentiment survey was expected to show further improvement MoM, but a slight decline from the preliminary print as gas prices started rising again following the apparent end of the MoU-driven MidEast ceasefire.
However, from 49.5 final for June, UMich headline print rose to 54.4 preliminary and has now jumped further to 55.2 (54 exp) final - the highest since February.
Both Current Conditions and Expectations sub-indices also rose with the latter jumping most and the former down very modestly from the preliminary print.
Broad-based improvements were seen across all groups by income, education, wealth, age, and political party.
“Consumers remain focused on pocketbook issues like purchasing power, while political or military developments remain more in the background,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.
Even Democrats are getting more enthused...
Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down from 4.6% in June to a still-elevated 4.2% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings. Long-run inflation expectations held steady from last month at 3.3%, remaining a bit higher than the 2.8% to 3.2% range seen in 2024.
