Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
The S&P 500 spent most of the year riding above its 50-day moving average, and we have warned for the last couple of weeks that a break lower would be worth paying attention to. That break occurred on Thursday, as the index closed the week at 7,411.98, roughly 0.8% below the 50-DMA at 7,467, marking its first decisive break below that line in months.
Momentum has clearly rolled over. The 14-day RSI sits in the mid-40s, below the neutral 50 line but not yet oversold, suggesting there is room for further downside before the tape gets stretched. The MACD agrees with the signal line crossing bearish about a week ago, and the histogram keeps widening to the downside. This is what the early innings of a pullback look like, not the middle or the end.
One encouraging detail sits beneath the surface. The tight link between the hyperscalers and the semiconductors has broken down, and the chip complex actually held up on the week, even as the megacaps were sold. Decliners still outran advancers by roughly three to one on the New York Stock Exchange during Thursday’s rout. This was a real risk-off session, not a quiet drift. A theme that rotates internally behaves very differently from one that investors are abandoning wholesale.
The bigger trend is still intact. The 200-day moving average sits at 7,001, and the index remains almost 6% above it. A slide to the 50-DMA or even the July closing low near 7,354 would be entirely normal inside an ongoing uptrend. The line that matters is the 200-DMA. Lose that, and the conversation changes.
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