By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
Last weekend we published that the market was sitting on Multiple Inflection Points. We were concerned that many of the inflection points would resolve themselves negatively for the market:
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Iran, which we didn’t even give the full “inflection” point treatment to, has deteriorated. While Brent finished the week at almost $90, up from just above $70, it seemed to be a “side story” at this stage. However, with the news of the U.S. service members killed on Friday in Jordan, the question becomes how this alters the U.S. strategy to pressure Iran to stop its attacks on shipping in the Strait and return to the table to continue negotiations.
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AI Spend was the most important inflection point and that seems to be resolving itself rather negatively with the Philly Semi Index down 10% on the week! More on this later.
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Russia/Ukraine. General (ret.) Spider Marks, Rachel Washburn, and I spent a lot of time talking about this conflict. I continue to be optimistic, maybe even a bit more optimistic than the consensus Geopolitical Intelligence Group view, but that’s my take.
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Japanese Yen. The infamous carry trade did little last week, but strength in the Yen remains a risk for the broader market.
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Crypto and DATCos. With the volatility in other markets last week, the stability in this space was noticeable. The jury is still out on which way this inflection point will resolve itself, but the case th
