Despite our view that beef prices will remain elevated this year amid the smallest US cattle herd size in more than 60 years and mounting concerns over New World screwworm detections in Texas, live cattle futures in Chicago have tumbled this month as speculative traders unwind bullish bets.
Chicago live cattle futures have dropped to their lowest point since December 2025, as speculative traders liquidate positions amid weakening cash trade and falling wholesale beef prices.
The commodities firm CIH Cattle Team pointed out on X that both speculative and commercial traders are reducing their long exposure: "Live Cattle OI in a major downtrend! Down 11k over the past month and 83k contracts year-over-year; OI lowest since 2022 for July."
Live Cattle OI in a major downtrend!
— CIH Cattle Team (@CIHCattleTeam) July 15, 2026
Down 11k over the past month and 83k contracts YoY
OI lowest since 2022 for July#cattle #beef #ag pic.twitter.com/bGT12q5L8h
Feeder Cattle Index -$3.55
CIH Est: $365.52; Previous: $
