Authored by Rystad Energy via OilPrice.com,
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Venezuela could increase crude production by about 194,000 bpd by late 2028, with most growth coming from existing producing fields rather than new discoveries.
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International oil companies led by Chevron are expected to deliver nearly two-thirds of the forecast production increase through brownfield investments.
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The biggest obstacles are operational, including drilling rigs, diluent supplies, infrastructure upgrades, and a competitive fiscal regime capable of attracting long-term investment.
Venezuela's upstream industry has entered a new phase. Following sweeping hydrocarbon reforms and broader geopolitical developments in early 2026, the conversation has shifted from whether the country can reopen its oil sector to whether it can successfully execute a meaningful production recovery. The country's resource potential has never been in doubt. The greater challenge now lies in converting policy momentum into sustained operational growth.
Rystad Energy estimates Venezuela's crude production could increase by approximately 17%, or around 194,000 barrels per day (bpd), between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2028. Importantly, this growth is expected to come primarily from existing producing assets rather than large-scale new discoveries, highlighting that operational execution, not resource availability, will determine the pace of recovery.
Near-term production growth will be dominated by heavier crude
