Was SK Hynix's US Debut The AI Bubble Top? BNP Says It's Still 1998

With SK Hynix's American depositary receipts now trading under the temporary ticker SKHYV as of late Friday morning, the seven-times-oversubscribed offering highlights Wall Street's rush for more direct exposure to high-bandwidth memory amid the AI infrastructure boom.

Against the backdrop of mounting concerns about an AI infrastructure bubble, Roth Capital Partners' sales trading team asked clients earlier Friday: "How will investors, looking back two years from now, view the timing and significance of SK Hynix's US offering?"

Taking a look at the GS TMT Memory Exposed Index (GSTMTMEM Index), Goldman Sachs' thematic basket tracking companies with high exposure to the memory chip cycle, the trade appears to have peaked in mid-June.

Zooming in on the recent price action in the GSTMTMEM Index:

That rollover has since spread into the broader South Korean market, with the Kospi entering a bear market this week as the memory stock euphoria begins to fade.

Adding to the AI bubble doomerism camp is UBS' proprietary Market Fragility Index, an internal risk gauge measuring how vulne