The US Climate Prediction Center has warned that the weather phenomenon El Niño, which only recently emerged across the Pacific, could become the most powerful in more than 75 years. This raises the risk of adverse weather conditions across the US, Asia, Australia, and South America. The stronger the weather event becomes, the greater the threat to critical food supply chains, which are already vulnerable to drought, flooding, export restrictions, and rising protectionism.
The CPC, a NOAA/National Weather Service unit that issues official US government climate outlooks, wrote in its report that sea-surface temperatures at least 1C above normal have spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with an 81% chance the event becomes "very strong" and ranks among the largest on record since 1950. Some parts of the Pacific were 2.7C above normal last week.
A negative El Niño Southern Oscillation Index indicates pressure patterns consistent with El Niño, typically associated with weaker Pacific trade winds and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. The SOI is now at levels not seen since 2005.
"Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to typical impacts everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes," the Climate Prediction Center said. El Niño "will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it wi
