Gold’s break below key technical support of 4050 to the 4023 low in New York trading on Wednesday appears driven primarily by stop-loss liquidation and positioning rather than a material deterioration in macro fundamentals, according to UBS.
As the bank's trader Marcus Millis writes, "the move flushed out long exposure and left positioning looking more balanced, reducing the immediate risk of further forced selling."
However, he cautions, the broader trading backdrop remains challenging. That's because with front-end USD rates expected to stay under pressure, upside in gold looks limited, and rallies are still viewed as opportunities to reduce exposure rather than chase higher prices.
Near-term support should emerge around recent lows at 4040-50 with resistance at 4110/20, but conviction for a sustained rebound remains low.
That said, the long term fundamentals remain especially solid, and patient holders who would rather collect income from gold as a "productive" metal until its next breakout, rather than a passive, not-yielding asset, can check out the offerings from our partner Monetary Metals.
Case in point: as we reported a few weeks ago when analyzing th
