Cocoa futures in New York have doubled since the start of March and have now climbed back toward levels not seen since late 2025, around $6,000 a ton, as Jefferies analysts warn that a "perfect storm's a-brewing" across West Africa, the world's top cocoa-farming region.
Jefferies analyst Scott Marks wrote in a note on Tuesday that new weather concerns center on Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's top cocoa-growing regions.
He said that temperatures in both countries have been about 2F below five-year averages since March, while rainfall in June ran about 46% above average in Ivory Coast and 52% above average in Ghana. Excess rain increases the risk of black pod and brown rot.
Early surveys of Ivory Coast's 2026/27 crop point to below-average cherelle formation and poor pod development.
Industry estimates now show around 1.7 to 1.8 million metric tons, down about 18% from roughly 2.2 million tons in 2025/26, the analyst noted.
Global cocoa market snapshot still dire:
A 2024/2025 estimated global cocoa surplus of ~48 thousand tons is now expected according to ICCO reports published May'26, below prior estimates of ~75 thousand tons
With the global cocoa stock-to-grinding ratio still below the historical avg, but an improvement from the 2023/24 season
Beyond the current adverse weather conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana, traders are also mon
