In our jobs preview post we quoted Goldman Delta One head, Rich Privorotsky, who said that "equities marginally want something weaker than consensus: with no forward guidance, hot NFP means hikes in play, which is unfriendly for pockets of equity risk." Well, they got it because moments ago the BLS reported that in June the US added just 57K workers, half the 113K expected, and the worst monthly print since the big February drop.
Except for an outlier 25K forecast from Citi, the jobs print was below all forecasts, a 2 sigma miss to estimates.
And yes, negative revisions are back:
- April jobs revised down by 31,000, from +179,000 to +148,000
- May jobs revised down by 43,000, from +172,000 to +129,000.
With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 74,000 lower than previously reported as Trump once again goes back to using the Biden playbook.
Remarkably, while the number of payrolls rose by 57K, the number of actually employed people plunged by 507K to 162.264MM, which means the staggering gap between workers and payrolls is once again blowing out.
Just as ominously, the labor force participation rate plunged from 61.8% to 61.5%...
... driven by a
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