Donald Trump's grip on the non-college-educated voters who propelled him to theWhite Houseis reportedly 'collapsing' as the 2026 midterm elections approach.
The shift, highlighted by CNN data expert Harry Enten and reported byThe Independent, suggests Trump has moved from a strong advantage with voters without a college degree to a negative split, a dramatic reversal ahead of the 2026 midterms.
The fresh analysis on 10 February 2026 reveals a staggering 23-point swing away from the President within this crucial demographic. Once boasting a 14-point advantage over the opposition, Trump now faces a nine-point negative split among working-class voters. The shift comes amid a perfect storm of economic frustration and a national outcry over lethal federal immigration raids in the Midwest
'He is absolutely collapsing with the group of voters that helped put him into the White House,' Enten said.
The shift extends beyond Trump personally. The same demographic is moving away from the Republican Party at scale, raising alarms for the GOP ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
To show the impact this voter base has had on Trump, the poll compared it with the 2024 US Presidential election. At the time, the approval rating of the current president within the group was 14 points higher than that of former Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump has enjoyed this leverage since he won the elections in a landslide.
Recently, however, Trump now has a 'nine-point' negative split among voters with no college degrees.
'That's a 23-point switcheroo with his base of non-college voters,' Enten said.
Interestingly, it's not just Trump who received a very disappointing rating. Enten also found that the same voter base and demographic are moving away from the Republican Party in large numbers.
The US is now heading into the 2026 midterms. While the GOP still maintains a net-positive approval rating, the market is betting against them. Reflecting recent voter sentiment, the market is signalling that Democrats now have a higher chance of winning.
Source: International Business Times UK
