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Today’s main event takes place in Sintra, Portugal and the ECB’s annual symposium, where Warsh joins President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at 9 a.m. New York time. Bloomberg Economics expects Warsh to strike a carefully balanced tone after signaling different messages to hawks and doves at the June FOMC meeting
Courtesy of Newsquawk, here is a prime of what to expect at the Sintra panel featuring Fed’s Warsh, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Bailey & BoC’s Macklem, at 14:00BST/09:00EDT.
The panel is a ‘policy panel", lasting for one hour from 14:00BST/09:00EDT, with CNBC’s Eisen as moderator. Text releases are not expected.
Fed
Warsh has already become notorious in not wanting to provide forward guidance, so while traders will be looking to his appearance for clues on future policy, some analysts suggest that traders may be left disappointed. At his first policy meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC held the FFR target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, via a unanimous vote. Warsh described the labour market as keeping pace with workforce growth, with unemployment little changed, while inflation remains elevated due to energy-related supply shocks tied to the Iran conflict. On the 2% target, Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s “capability and commitment" to deliver price stability, calling the commitment “strong, unanimous, and unambiguous". Notably, he declined to submit his own SEP projections (though nine of the other eighteen officials projected the FFR target will end 2026 above the current range, pointing to hike risk). On the balance sheet, the Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system, with a dedicated task force reviewing the balance sheet tool’s transmission. Warsh also abandoned for
