Every 29-year-old in France is to receive a letter from the government reminding them to plan their family “before it’s too late”. Macron’s government is attempting to raise awareness about declining fertility and the risks associated with delayed parenthood. The initiative reflects mounting concern within Paris over falling birth rates and long-term demographic collapse. The dystopian decision to remind people they need to have children underscores a broader anxiety spreading across Europe, where population decline is no longer a theoretical projection but an unfolding statistical trend.
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The scale of France’s demographic shift becomes clearer when viewed numerically.
According to INSEE (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques), France’s total fertility rate fell to approximately 1.68 children per woman in 2023, down from 1.84 in 2021 and just above 2.0 in 2010. In 2024, provisional data indicated a further decline toward 1.6, placing France well below the replacement threshold of 2.1.
The number of annual births has also dropped sharply. France recorded around 678,000 births in 2023, compared with over 800,000 annually in the early 2010s. That represents a decline of more than 120,000 births per year within roughly a decade.
The average age of mothers at childbirth has continued to rise, reaching approximately 31 years, compared with under 29 years in the late 1990s. Delayed parenthood has become the norm rather than the exception.
For many years, France stood out within Europe as a demographic exception. Its fertility rate remained significantly higher than that of Germany, Italy or Spain. That advantage has now narrowed considerably. France is converging downward toward broader European patterns.
Until recently, however, overall population growth remained relatively stable. That stability was not driven by rising native birth rates.
For years, France’s demographic resilience was presented as proof that the country had avoided the collapse seen elsewhere in Europe. In reality, much of that stability rested on sustained immigration rather than a recovery in native birth rates.
According to INSEE, France issued roughly 320,000 first residence permits in 2022, with similarly elevated levels in 2023. A significant share of arrivals came from North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Middle East, through family reunification, asylum and labour migration channels. The foreign-born share of the population has now risen to around 10 percent nationally, and substantially higher in major cities.
Source: SGT Report
