Your News to Know rounds up the most important stories about precious metals and the overall economy. This week, we’ll cover:
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According toReuters, the price of gold surged sharplybefore pulling backlast week, triggering headlines about “crashes” and “billions wiped out.” CNBC similarly highlighted analysts attributing price swings to massive futures contracts and leverage.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggestedChinese speculators played a rolein this all-but-unprecedentedgold pricevolatility. He’s not alone.Bloombergmade similar claimsa couple of weeks back.
There’s some truth there. Gold investment has long played an important role in China’s household savings. Here in the U.S., gold accounts for a miniscule fraction (0.17%-0.2%) of financial portfolios,according to Goldman Sachs. Chinese investors, on average, ownfive timesas much gold (1% of total assets). Chinese exchanges have recently tightened oversight of gold trading, including scrutiny of margin activity, limiting leverage and restricting “synthetic” financial products like derivatives tied to gold price.
Since the beginning of the month, I’ve seen so many headlines like$1.3 Trillion Wiped Out in 2 Hoursand$10 Trillion Erased in 3 Days. Headlines like that are attention-grabbing, I’ll grant you.
But here’s what gets lost in the noise.
Physical gold bullion owners didn’t see billions “wiped out.” A two-day price spike followed by a correction isnot the same thingas a collapse in gold price or in gold demand. When we look at the last six weeks, we’ve seen volatility:
Zoom outeven slightly, and gold remainssignificantly higherversus last month (+8.14%) and year-over-year (+72%). The farther you go back in time, the smarter gold owners look.
What we’rereallywitnessing is something markets always do during structural repricing events.Leverage magnifies price moves. When an asset class catches attention, speculators pile in with borrowed money and hope like crazy to make a quick buck. But when a trade gets “crowded” like gold and silver have over the last few months, there’s more and more leverage at work. Every price move gets bigger.
Source: SGT Report