Is theIran warover and peace pact a done deal? The short answer is 'not yet', but closer than at any point since the conflict began on February 28. US President Donald Trump declared on June 14, which happens to be his birthday (possibly a happy one!), that the deal with Iran is "now complete", ordered the US naval blockade lifted and authorised a toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council reportedly said: “Based on the agreements reached, the war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, will end immediately and permanently as of tonight, and in addition, the naval blockade against Iran will end immediately and completely."
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif separately announced that apeace deal had been reached, with an official signing ceremony set for June 19 in Switzerland.
But a declaration is not a signature. The document in question is a memorandum of understanding (MoU) that would extend the existing ceasefire by 60 days and open negotiations toward a permanent end to the war. Trump's ally Israel has also been critical to the deal, saying that they won't cede the seized territories in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. The window between June 15 and June 19, the D-Day for the Deal, and four issues are likely to decide whether the agreement holds or breaks.
In principle, reporting indicates Iran would commit to a 15-to-20-year period during which it would not enrich uranium and would dismantle nuclear sites, with financial relief staggered to match compliance. Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium — about 440 kilograms of up to 60 percent material by IAEA estimates, which President Trump has called "nuclear dust" — has become a central sticking point, with Trump saying the United States, working with Iran and the IAEA, would unearth and destroy the material; Tehran has not confirmed that arrangement.
The unresolved pieces are the hard ones. Enrichment levels, monitoring mechanisms and long-term guarantees are all left for the later talks. Iran had refused to allow IAEA inspectors in to verify its programme, and the enriched material is assessed to lie under the rubble of the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan sites struck by the US and Israel. Verification, in other words, is a promise on paper, not yet a process on the ground.
Washington's version has the Strait of Hormuz reopening immediately and toll-free, with sanctions relief tied to compliance. Iran's draft, reported by Fortune, has the US lift the blockade immediately but restore full shipping within 30 days, with Iran returning to pre-war transit "taking into account the necessity of removing technical obstacles and mines," and US forces leaving the Gulf within 30 days of a final deal.
Iranian media framed the reopening as happening "under Iranian arrangements", a phrase that does a lot of quiet work, because it keeps Tehran in charge of who passes and when, alsowith or without a "fee". Iranian Foreign Ministry's Esmail Baghaei said they never said they would charge a toll at Hormuz, but stated that the vessels passing Hormuz will be required to pay the service fee for navigation services, environmental protection, possibly ship insurance, and other services provided by Iran and Oman, "fees will be designed and collected".
That is the real friction. Reopening Hormuz is not a switch Trump can flip from the Oval House. The US has said clearing the mines it believes Iran laid will take about six months, one reason marine insurers pulled war-risk cover for tankers, and around 2,000 ships have been stranded in the Gulf waiting to move. CSIS shipping data shows daily transits still running well below pre-conflict levels, with traffic increasingly subject to Iranian conditions.
A retired French vice-admiral told theAssociated Pressthat sending ships through before a genuine end to hostilities would be "suicidal," and that even a ceasefire would move the situation only from 'suicidal' to 'dangerous'.
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