Since the last FOMC meeting (where they held rates with two dovish dissents) on Jan 28th,Bitcoin has been the biggest underperformer (along with gold) while bonds and the dollar have rallied with stocks lagging...
March is 'off the table' for a rate-cut now (following last week's payrolls beat) but overall2026 rate-cut expectations are dovishly higher since the last FOMC meeting...
With macro data confirming Powell's positive narrative (for now)
With Growth surprising to the upside and inflation drifting lower...
Today's Minutes could be more interesting than recent months since TheFed displayed a hawkish tone with Powell talking up a “clear improvement” in the US outlook during the press conference, and said the job market shows signs of steadying.
A very divided Fed sees more rate-cuts (or hikes) possible and embraces lower inflation (and fears higher inflation)... (h/t Newsquawk)
Almost all supported maintaining 3.50-3.75%, while a couple preferred a 25 basis point cut, citing restrictive policy and labor market risks.
Several said further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation declines as expected.
Some judged rates should be held steady for some time pending clearer disinflation evidence.
Some said it would likely be appropriate to hold the policy rate steady for some time while assessing incoming data.
Source: ZeroHedge News
