Of late, those electoral quarriers at Redbridge Group have been doing much to add building material to One Nation’s momentum. First came apollin May which conducted a seat-by-seat mapping of the Commonwealth with Accent Research. The findings, published in theAustralian Financial Review, suggested that an election, were it to be held then, would result in the comprehensive liquidation and displacement of the conservative Coalition.
“The extent of the predicted Coalition collapse is so large,”suggestedAccent Research, “that it is estimated the Coalition parties will not win any seats in Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia or Tasmania.”
Thesecond Redbridge Group/Accent Research poll, conducted this month over May 25-28 sampling 1,005 respondents, found One Nation passing Labor in the primary vote with 31% to Labor’s 28%, leaving the Coalition gasping on 20%. Government members received a typical flogging in the opinion sampling:Prime Minister Anthony Albanesedown by ten points to -19;Treasurer Jim Chalmers, subterranean at -18 with a fall of 13 points. Opposition figures also fared poorly, with only One Nation’sPauline Hansonup from a single point to net zero.
It is also worth noting that Redbridge’s second poll, along with YouGov, Morgan, Fox & Hedgehog (is there no end to these puffing astrologers?) were taken after the Labor government’s federal budget. Government budgets, largely because they are perused and examined for reasons of self-interest and selfishness by the voting public, are rarely popular, a fact psephologists could do more to point out.
The flames have been magnified in the commentary. There is the boilerplate speculation, with little in the way of verification. (The problem with polling is that it is never verifiable, always contingent and rarely stable.) Nonetheless, this is theviewthe veteran journalist Michelle Grattan, yet another hack to be propelled into the groves of academe as a professorial fellow, gives her readers:
“One nation, it seems, is the party that’s received a ‘bounce’ from an unpopular budget, up four points in a month, while both Labor and the Coalition went backwards.”
Sky News, with its own collaborative poll with YouGov, gave political reporter Oscar Godsell room toheraldthe arrival of Australia’s “most popular political party […] as Labor tanks to an all-time low amid ongoing fallout over the government’s broken budget promises.” (Labor received 26% to One Nation’s 29%.) But Godsell does not stop there. He offers tactical advice on what the conservative bloc of Australian politics might do come the next election.
“Amid discussions about a potential Coalition-One Nation alliance, the bulk of voters said they wanted the two conservative parties to team up.”
Again, the media-psephology complex exercises its insidious influence through the shabby construction known as “voter intention”.
YouGov’s Director of Public Data, Paul Smith, had toaddhis expansive, immodest prediction on the results:
Source: Global Research
