US equity futures are mixed as oil prices, bond yields, and USD move higher in response to the latest overnight attacks in the Middle East with no public progress on a deal. As reported previously, the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island, which was then met with retaliatory Iranian strikes on US bases in Kuwait; explosions were also reported in Saudi Arabia, and air sirens were set off in the UAE. US Centcom said that the Iranian drone attacks were “successfully defeated.” As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were down 0.1% but off session lows: absent the now daily gamma squeeze, the S&P is poised to halt a nine-day rally; Nasdaq futures rose 0.2% with semis bid premarket led by MRVL, INTC, AVGO, and AMD as Mag7 names are weaker. Some pockets of tech exuberance are seen in the US pre-market with Marvell adding 12% to Tuesday’s near 33% surge. Tech enthusiasm was once again on display in Asia with the MSCI APAC index hitting yet another record high. Mag7 have been used as a funding trade to buy Semis and to make room for deals, according to JPM. Cyclicals ex-Energy are lagging Defensives. Brent rose 2.3% to top $98 a barrel. The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed four basis points to 4.48% as crude prices stoked concerns about inflationary pressures; the yield curve is bear flattening with yields up 3-4bp as USD is poised for its strongest week since mid-May. Data calendar includes May ADP employment change (8:15am), S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am), and April factory orders and May ISM services index (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Barr (9am) and Logan (4pm), and Beige Book is slated for 2pm release.
In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven are mixed (Meta +0.6%, Apple -0.2%, Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon -0.05%, Nvidia +0.3%, Microsoft +0.2%, Tesla -0.7%)
In other news, SpaceX plans to set the terms of its IPO offering as early as Wednesday afternoon, ahead of what’s expected to be the biggest ever listing. Reuters later reported that SpaceX aims to sell 555.6 million shares at $135 apiece. Uber set usage caps on some AI-powered tools used by its staff. The move, meant to manage costs after the company blew through its AI budget, may be a concern for investors tracking the explosive growth in the industry. GitLab is cutting about 14% of its workforce and exiting 22 countries as part of a restructuring aimed at streamlining operations and sharpening execution. Google must make changes to its AI-generated search summaries after the UK’s antitrust watchdog ordered it to give publishers more control over how their content is used.
US stocks struggled to build on record gains as growing strains on the ceasefire between the US and Iran sent oil prices higher for a third straight day and lifted bond yields. The cautious mood in markets follows flare-ups in the Middle East that are testing a fragile truce between Washington and Tehran, with US forces intercepting ballistic missiles and drones aimed at neighboring countries and striking an Iranian command center in response.
The mitigating factor is higher SoH throughput; According to JPM EM Strategy, energy export volume have risen to ~3.6mm bpd over the last 2 days with the 7dma ~2.5mm bpd and refined chemical throughput now >50% of pre-conflict levels. The OECD flags global growth downside risk from a prolonged US / Iran Conflict while hiking its inflation estimates.
Trump said the US was continuing to work with Iran on a deal. Tehran has agreed it won’t have a nuclear weapon and the parties’ leaders “probably will meet at some point,” Trump said. Traders are watching whether the S&P 500 can extend its winning streak to the longest in more than three decades. A narrow rally has seen technology stocks, and chipmakers in particular, leave the rest of the market far behind.“I don’t think this is the top, there’s still room to run,” said Amanda Lyons, head of research at Energy Group Capital. “The fuel is just quietly shifting from earnings to excitement; that’s fine on the way up, it only matters when the music stops.”
The S&P 500 may have just matched its best winning streak since 1995, but that run included five days in a row when decliners outnumbered advancers. The pattern, which was snapped on Tuesday, is described as a “breadth paradox,” by BTIG technician Jonathan Krinsky. Yet over the past three years, periods of weak breadth failed to alter the overall picture, Bloomberg notes.
Investors are also awaiting SpaceX’s disclosure of the terms of its initial public offering that is set to be by far the largest in history. Reuters reported that Elon Musk’s rocket launch, satellite and AI company aims to sell more than 550 million shares at $135 apiece for a $75 billion IPO. The share sale forms part of a pipeline of potential offerings from high-profile tech companies in the coming months. AI rivals OpenAI and Anthropic PBC look to forge ahead with listings of their own, while Alphabet Inc. revealed plans for a record $80 billion equity offering on Monday.
“The IPO wave is a strong confidence indicator for markets,” said Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank. “We think there is enough capacity in the market to absorb them, and the renewed issuance pipeline is additive to the broader market story.”
Private credit is back in focus, with Partners Group limiting withdrawals at one of its evergreenprivate equityfunds amid heightened redemption pressure. It’s a sign the investor anxiety that hit private credit vehicles may be spilling over to asset classes within private markets. It follows Cliffwater’s flagship private credit fund capping redemptions at 5% in the second quarter after investors looked to pull about 17% of shares.
Source: ZeroHedge News
