Europe is experiencing the most dangerous security crisis of the post-Cold War period. The real problem is not the possibility of war, but the erosion of the crisis management capacity of the parties.

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The Ukraine war is no longer just a regional conflict on the Ukrainian ground. The tension between NATO and Russia on the line stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea, from Poland to Kaliningrad has entered a new strategic stage. The Russia-Ukraine war has entered a very dangerous escalation phase again in recent days. The high-intensity missile and UAV attacks carried out by Russia against Ukraine, especially in the last ten days, show that the war has entered a new phase not only on the front line but also in strategic depth. Intense attacks on Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnipro and energy infrastructure began to strain Ukraine’s air defense capacity.

In the same process, while Russia increased the pressure to advance on the front line, especially on the Donbas axis, signs of growing manpower and ammunition losses on the Ukrainian side are noteworthy. It is no coincidence that even in the Western media, there is an increase in analyzes that Ukraine is now experiencing strategic defense fatigue. While writing these lines, Russia’s advice to NATO states to evacuate Kiev should be taken into account. Putin and the Russian state seem not to allow Ukraine to become a new Afghanistan – that is, a battlefield of attrition. At the same time, it was claimed that Russia attacked an apartment building in Romania with a UAV.

Putin, on the other hand, implied that it was a false flag operation and blamed the western media. (If we look at the recent false flag operation record of the USA and the UK and remember the confession that CENTCOM Admiral Cooper reverse-engineered and used Iranian Shaheed SİHAs in the Iran-Israel-US war, we can say that the same can be done for Russia.)

In parallel with these developments, Europe is experiencing the most dangerous security crisis of the post-Cold War period. However, the real problem is not the increase in the possibility of war, but the erosion of the crisis management capacity of the parties. Just as Europe was dragged into great wars in an environment of alliance systems, arms race, media propaganda and mutual distrust before 1914 and 1939, a similar psychological and strategic climate is emerging today. However, today’s difference is that the process takes place in the nuclear age, in the environment of UAVs, hypersonic missiles and artificial intelligence-supported war technologies. The risk of miscalculation has now reached an existential level for humanity. In particular, the Black Sea airspace and the Suwalki Corridor, which provides the only transportation opportunity under NATO control that controls Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast neighboring Lithuania, the Belarusian border neighboring Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania, and the Baltic airspace have become among the most dangerous contact areas in the world today.

Despite these experiences, the contradiction between the economic picture in Europe and the language of war is great. Europe today does not have the production infrastructure, ammunition stockpiles and social resilience to sustain a major war. Despite this, its capacity to produce crises and encourage escalation is increasing. While European economies are under serious pressure from deindustrialization, rising energy costs, loss of production, public debts and demographic collapse, it is thought-provoking that Atlanticist circles are turning to an increasingly aggressive line against Russia and see rearmament as a solution. In particular, Mersz, Macron, Starmer and the Baltic security circles are shifting towards an increasingly aggressive line against Russia despite the peoples they represent, and they are dragging Europe into an increasingly high-risk strategic line.

However, there is a serious disconnect between Europe’s real military capacity and its political discourse. For this reason, the most powerful element that Europe has today is not military power, but the capacity to produce provocative strategic behavior. This is where the greatest danger arises. Because actors whose capacity weakens often start to act more riskily. In this case, they look for states that will shed their blood for them.

In this atmosphere, one of the most important strategic messages given by Moscow came through the Oreshnik missile. The message sent by Russia in its Oreshnik attack on Kiev last week is directed at NATO, not just Ukraine. The Kremlin openly declares that the war will not be limited to the Ukrainian field, but that it can activate a new generation of high-precision systems that can reach deep into Europe if necessary.

Source: Global Research