An excruciatingly painful tropical disease once confined to Africa and Asia can now be transmitted bymosquitoesacross most of Europe, scientists have warned, raising fears it could soon edge closer to Britain. New research has found thatchikungunya— a virus that causes severe and prolonged joint pain and can be fatal in young children and older adults — is able to spread at lower temperatures than previously believed.
As Europe warms, that shift dramatically expands the areas and months during which outbreaks are possible. Chikungunya virus was first detected in 1952 in Tanzania and has historically been confined to tropical regions, where millions of infections occur each year. However, a small number of cases have been reported in more than 10 European countries in recent years, and large-scale outbreaks of hundreds of cases hitFranceandItalyin 2025.
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The new analysis, published in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface, is the first to fully assess the effect of temperature on the incubation time of the virus in the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, which has invaded Europe in recent decades.
The study found the minimum temperature at which infections could occur is 2.5°C lower than previous, less robust, estimates.
Sandeep Tegar, at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH) and lead author of the study, said: “The rate of global warming in Europe is approximately double the rate of global warming at global scale and the lower temperature limit for virus spread matters a lot, so our new estimates are quite shocking. The northward expansion of the disease is just a matter of time.”
The study found the cut-off temperature for transmission is 13°C-14°C, meaning infections can occur for more than six months of the year in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece, and for three to five months of the year in Belgium, France, Germany, Switzerland and a dozen other European countries.
In south-east England, conditions may be suitable for two months of the year.
The minimum temperature was previously estimated at between 16°C and 18°C, meaning there is a risk of chikungunya outbreaks in more areas and for longer periods than previously thought.
Source: Daily Express :: World Feed
