Robert A Pape, Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats,posteda stark warning on X on 2 June 2026: 'Brace for new shocks in June.' The post, which has since drawn more than 30,000 views, was accompanied by a Bloomberg chart sourced from JPMorgan showing world oil inventories falling at a record pace toward what analysts call an 'operational stress level' — a threshold the bank estimates will be breached this month.

Pape noted that March estimates of the oil inventory countdown are now materialising, and warned that as more market participants simultaneously recognise the scale of the crisis, it will 'only add to Iran's growing leverage.' His warning did not emerge from a vacuum. It is backed by a convergence of data from the world's largest investment banks, all of which point to the same conclusion: the global oil buffer is disappearing faster than at any point in recorded history.

Two months into the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the ongoing Iran war that began in late February 2026, the drawdown of global oil stockpiles has shattered previous records. Morgan Stanley estimates that global oil stockpiles dropped by roughly4.8 millionbarrels a day between 1 March and 25 April — far exceeding the previous peak quarterly drawdown tracked by the International Energy Agency. Goldman Sachs estimates global observable inventories dropped by7.1 millionbarrels a day in April alone, with crude accounting for nearly 60 per cent of the decline.

Total visible oil inventories, which peaked at nearly 9 billion barrels during the Covid-19 demand collapse in March 2020, stood at approximately 8.5 billion barrels when the war in Iran began. They are now falling at what analysts describe as a near-vertical rate.

Notice the March estimates of the oil inventory countdown are now occurringBrace for new “shocks” in JuneAs everyone starts to see the cliff coming at the same time.This will only add to Iran’s growing leveragepic.twitter.com/IFKChFSLli

Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan Chase, has identified two critical levels that the market is now being forced to confront simultaneously. The first is what she calls the 'operational stress level,' set at approximately 7.6 billion barrels — the point at which price volatility becomes extreme, rationing of refined products begins in the most exposed markets, and the margin for error in supply chain management drops to near zero. JPMorgan estimates this level will be reached in June 2026.

The second and far more dangerous level is the 'operational minimum floor' at approximately 6.8 billion barrels — the bare minimum required to keep pipelines, storage tanks, and export terminals functioning. JPMorgan's projections, assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted with demand destruction of 5.6 million barrels a day, place that breach in September 2026. 'Inventories are acting as the shock absorber of the global oil system,' Kaneva has said. 'But not every barrel can be drawn.'

Chevron Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner warned on 1 May that 'a lot of the inventory and spare capacity has been depleted already,' adding that import-dependent countries could face critical shortages 'as we get into the June-July time-frame.'

The most acute pressure is being felt across fuel-import-reliant nations in Asia. Traders have pointed to Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the Philippines as the countries at greatest immediate risk, with some potentially hitting critical supply levels within weeks. Japan and India are also at least at a 10-year seasonal low in stockpiles, according to geospatial analytics firm Kayrros.

European jet fuel stocks are also deteriorating rapidly, with inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub having dropped by a third since the war began to a six-year low, according to Insights Global. Summer travel demand is expected to worsen the situation further, with the UK, Germany, and France identified as the most vulnerable due to heavy traffic and insufficient local production capacity.

Source: International Business Times UK