An array of charts buried in the fine print of the state budget, unknown to all but a few fiscal nerds, details what California has collected in revenues and spent over the last half-century.
The current charts in Gov. Gavin Newsom’sproposed 2026-27 budgetreveal how spending has exploded during his governorship, far outstripping stagnant population growth, inflation and even a hefty increase in revenues.
The result, according to both Newsom’s Department of Finance and the Legislative Analyst Office, is a multibillion-dollar “structural deficit,” meaning that revenues cannot cover spending that Newsom and the Legislature have enacted.
“Both our office and the administration expect the state to face multiyear deficits, with estimates ranging from $20 billion to $35 billion annually,” Legislative Analyst Gabe Petek says in hisoverview of the proposed budget.
“These deficits are concerning for three reasons. First, after four years of projected deficits and a cumulative total of $125 billion in budget problems solved so far, the state’s negative fiscal situation is now chronic.
“Second, structural deficits have grown — our November outlook is the most negative forecast of the budget’s position since the pandemic. Finally, deficits have persisted even as the state’s economy and revenues have grown, underscoring that the problem is structural rather than cyclical. Taken together, these trends raise serious concerns about the state’s fiscal sustainability.”
The budget’s historic charts are important because they support Petek’s deficit warning and undercut politicians’ temptation to shift the blame to economic conditions, emergencies such as the Los Angeles wildfires or reductions in federal aid by President Donald Trump.
In the seven budgets Newsom has signed, beginning with 2019-20, and the eighth one he has proposed, revenues have increased by 60%, mostly from taxes that tapped into a 48% increase in Californians’ personal income during the period. Total spending, however, jumped 72%, from $203 billion to $349 billion.
During that same period, the state’s population has been stagnant at 39.6 million whileinflation at the national levelhas been 29%, averaging 3.4% a year, with California’s inflation slightly lower at about 3%.
In other words, revenues have increased at roughly twice the rate of inflation while spending has jumped even higher.
Source: California Post – Breaking California News, Photos & Videos
